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Veepstakes! the Hunt for Kamala Harris's Running Mate

Politics

July 31, 2024

A little over three months before the general election for president of the United States of America, the race has been turned completely on its head. On July 21st, incumbent president and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden announced he was withdrawing from the election, roughly three weeks following a catastrophic performance in his first debate against former president Donald Trump.

The debate caused already prevalent doubts about his age to completely permeate the American electorate, and hundreds of Democratic lawmakers called for him to step out of the race - so as not to lose disastrously in November.

The news cycle seemed only to intensify in the month following the debate: Donald Trump almost got assassinated at a rally in Pennsylvania, Trump chose his running mate in Ohio senator JD Vance, the Republican National Convention happened, and for the first time in history, a sitting president won his primary and only then chose to drop out. A moment of rest for media personnel everywhere would be appropriate.

Still, as we pass the 100-day mark until the election, it seems that instead, we have a different race to discuss: the one between Trump and his new opponent, Kamala Harris. Drivers, keep your engines running.

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The New Democratic Nominee

Provided you haven't been living either under a rock or outside the United States, you likely knew all that already. It also seems likely you know who Kamala Harris is - former Democratic primary contender for the presidency, Joe Biden's eventual running mate, and upon their victory in 2020, the newly elected vice president of the United States. As the president's constitutionally ordained successor, a strong VP is typically a de facto #2 whose duty is to occupy whatever space their president may leave behind.

Well aware of this, Biden endorsed her shortly after withdrawing, and that was that. Fifteen vice presidents have been elected president, and Harris is now looking to make it sixteen.

The ascendancy of Harris from running mate to candidate for president begs the question: who will she choose as her running mate? For Joe Biden, in 2020, Harris was a way to add diversity to the ticket and appeal to younger and more liberal voters, though she had no specific appeal in the context of the electoral college.

Harris has indeed seen incredible support from these voting blocs in the opening days of her campaign. However, with Trump still ahead of her in most nationwide polls (though it should be noted that she has narrowed the margin that Trump had over Biden considerably, and most pundits consider it a tied race), it will be necessary to invigorate the right people with her choice.

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Trump's Running Mate JD Vance

Of course, Ohio senator JD Vance made headlines - you know, as you do when you're a politician - by being chosen, somewhat surprisingly, as Donald Trump's running mate. A bestselling author and Marine veteran, Vance was initially thought to be a fairly good decision.

His ties to Silicon Valley enabled much-needed cash flow into the Trump campaign, his former criticisms of Trump were quickly spun as evidence of Trump's ability to win people over, and his educational background was generally seen as evidence that he would bring youth and intelligence to the ticket. Trump's two eldest sons, Donald Jr. and Eric, strongly advocated for their father to choose Vance.

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However, things have quickly gone downhill for Vance, as past gaffes he's made about America being run by "childless cat ladies" have resulted in already low approval ratings plummeting. It's also been pointed out that Vance's election as senator in 2022 was by a far thinner margin than many other Republicans in his state.

Since Harris's endorsement, Democrats have pounced on Vance, mocking his odd hillbilly-turned-venture-capitalist career. Due to Vance's low popularity, some have gone so far as to speculate that Trump might switch his running mate, though the chaotic optics of such a decision make it unlikely - after all, in a race like this, the spotlight will be off of Vance within the week, no matter what he says.

That being said, the unpopularity of JD Vance makes for a golden opportunity for the Democrats. Kamala Harris is a more exciting candidate to the general public than Joe Biden, and polls show that she has the potential to win the election in November - not to mention a record-breaking amount of fundraising that will surely help her do it.

However, she faces an uphill battle, and having a trustworthy running mate by her will be crucial. Most of the men floated - and yes, the pool is composed almost exclusively of white men since the general outlook is that a Democratic ticket ought to be balanced by race and gender - have clear advantages and disadvantages.

Potential Democratic Running Mates

A host of minor contenders were initially floated for the position but have since dropped off in terms of consideration. It would be false to present Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer, for instance, as a potential running mate for Kamala Harris. Whitmer, one of the most discussed names for Biden's ticket - if memory serves, Harris Whitmer and Stacey Abrams were by far the top three - would be an excellent choice, providing support in the much-needed swing state of Michigan.

However, Whitmer very quickly expressed disinterest in the position, publicly bowing out of contention. Many have speculated that her ambitions lie in a future presidential run, one that a Harris loss could taint.

Likewise, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper recently bowed out of consideration - so recently that I found out the news as I was writing about the likelihood that he would be chosen. Cooper, governor of a crucial swing state (likely the only state the Democrats can hope to flip from 2020 since Harris may have more demographic strength there than Biden, who lost by 1.4%), was long thought to be an ideal choice for Harris. Cooper would probably not have been met with as much enthusiasm as someone like Whitmer, but the logic behind him was never enthusiasm but rather a quiet and mature face on the ticket. Cooper did not cite a reason for his declining to be Harris's running mate.

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Starting with the contenders who have not bowed out or been denied as realistic candidates by the mainstream media - you won't find any mention of Georgia senator Raphael Warnock or California governor Gavin Newsom from any reputable news source, so you won't find me mentioning them either - we have Illinois governor J. B. Pritzker.

Pritzker, the richest politician in the United States (which includes Donald Trump… Pritzker's family owns the Hyatt hotel chain), is not a likely pick for Harris. He's a liberal governor in a solidly blue state, making him useless electorally, but hispopular abortion and labor legislation and successful attacks of both Trump and Vance on the ABC airwaves mean he's worthy of speculation.

But if we're talking about liberal governors making successful attacks, there's really no need to turn to J.B. Pritzker when Minnesota governor Tim Walz is standing right there. Walz coined what has quickly become the Democratic Party's new line of attack against the Republican one - "weird." In several television interviews the week following the 21st, Walz spearheaded a new framing device that the Harris campaign quickly adopted: one that characterizes the Trump-Vance ticket as strange and uncompromising, determined to invade privacy and cast moral judgment. The shift in rhetoric from labeling the Republicans as a threat to democracy to "just plain weird" is notable, and it's all thanks to Walz.

But Walz offers more than just good attack ads to the Democrats. A veteran and former teacher and football coach, as well as someone with a robust pro-labor and pro-union background, Walz is a uniquely good pick in service of Kamala Harris's victory in the Rust Belt states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

Though Minnesota - where Walz would likely garner the most advantage - is already a likely state for Harris to win, Walz would still help Harris more than some of the other veep contenders. These Rust Belt states are likely all-important for Harris… without them, it would take an almost unprecedented show of support from Black and Latino voters elsewhere in the country in order to overcome the 46-elector deficit that would leave her with.

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That being said, Walz is not the only candidate who can appeal to the Rust Belt states. Department of Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, whose home state is Indiana, is one of several possible picks that could be made with Midwestern demography in mind. Buttigieg made a fairly successful primary run in 2020, dropping out about a month after winning the Iowa caucuses.

Anyone with eyes knows that his uniquely strong debate skills make him a rising star in the party, but I assumed it would be at least another decade before the 42-year-old got himself onto a presidential ticket. However, Buttigieg has reportedly met with Harris about possibly being her running mate.

Nevertheless, more experienced politicians such as Walz still seem far more likely to me, as Harris is already popular with many of the young voters that Buttigieg appeals to. Instead, Harris has to consider where she is weak - and the answer to that question is overwhelmingly with white suburban voters.

Just as Joe Biden needed to add diversity and vitality to his ticket in 2020, Harris needs someone with the long track record that Biden had to complete hers. Though Walz is probably the most likely of the people I've discussed, he's far more liberal than many strategists would hope for; choosing Kamala almost certainly comes down to three men: Josh Shapiro, Andy Beshear, and Mark Kelly.

Go onto any betting market right now, and you'll find Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro at the top of his running mate prediction. The reason could not possibly be more simple: the Democrats need Pennsylvania.

With its 20 electoral votes and completely wide-open race - Trump and Harris are dead even in the state - it seems very likely that the national election will come down to this state. As the state's well-liked governor, Shapiro has been discussed in the electoral conversation since long before Joe Biden withdrew, seeing as he has by far the best shot of any possible candidate of winning the state.

Shapiro comes with some baggage - he's probably the most pro-Israel Democratic politician in the country, which could alienate some of Harris's advantage with younger voters, and one of his top staffers quietly settled a sexual harassment claim last month. Indeed, if you're looking through the lens of attack (watch enough Tim Walz interviews, and you start to), Shapiro has to be the easiest person for the Trump campaign to burden with criticism of any potential running mate.

The decision lies in whether to prioritize winning Pennsylvania or avoiding the gift of much-needed ammunition to the Republicans. Stare at an electoral map long enough; the latter might start sounding increasingly attractive.

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Then, there's Kentucky, a safe Republican state that doesn't even border the Rust Belt. We can just ignore it… wait, what's that? One of the most popular governors in the country is from Kentucky, and he's a Democrat.

That's right. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear is a prime candidate for the job and might be my favorite one. (Well, Walz is probably my favorite politician of the bunch, but Beshear seems even better from a practical standpoint.) No, Beshear doesn't offer up any particular state per se. But he just hits that sweet spot of a well-spoken, inspiring, moderate politician who will inevitably strike a chord with middle America.

Despite being a devout Christian and operating in conjunction with a hostile Republican legislature, Beshear has been an avid advocate for LGBT and abortion rights, making him a perfect face for the social acceptance that Democrats want to pioneer this election. Beshear, like Walz, has performed incredibly well on television for the past several weeks and has long been the face of the party's ability to evoke bipartisanship due to his very unique bragging right of being the Democratic governor of, well, Kentucky.

To me, he seems like the ideal counterbalance to JD Vance and would likely be the best pick overall, even if his immediate electoral advantage is not as evident as, say, Josh Shapiro.

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Finally, we have Arizona senator Mark Kelly. I'll be honest. I was really confused when I saw his name being mentionedin the same breath as the rest of these men.

Everyone I've mentioned has a certain pro-labor, Midwestern appeal that has always been crucial for Democratic victory. However, Mark Kelly seems to acknowledge that Kamala Harris is not Joe Biden and does not necessarily need the entire Rust Belt to win. Instead, the so-called Sun Belt states - Arizona and Nevada on the West Coast, North Carolina and Georgia on the East - could also provide her victory. The problem with Kelly is that he doesn't shore up a win in the latter two states, and the first two are a mere 17 electors. Plus, Kelly just isn't that interesting from a policy standpoint.

But it's a little reductive to say those 17 electors are the only reason Kelly is being so highly considered. He's a former astronaut, former Navy captain, the successor to John McCain, and one of the most popular senators in the country. His experience on the border lends him credence for many Southwestern voters who might be wary about Harris's perceived failures on the border during her vice presidency.

The attempted assassination of his wife, Gabby Giffords, in a Tucson shooting lends him an emotional hook for many voters to become aware of his extensive lobbying for gun control legislation. So, it's only with the electoral college that he falls short of his fellow contenders.

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Looking to The Future

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, Kamala Harris's emergence as the new prospective Democratic nominee against Donald Trump has injected new energy and uncertainty into the race. Biden's withdrawal and endorsement of Harris has set the stage for a highly competitive election.

Harris's selection of a running mate is now more critical than ever, with each potential candidate offering distinct advantages: Walz the attacker, Beshear the friendly face, Kelly the mature figure, Shapiro the electoral ticket, and others on their coattails. As the campaign progresses, the race between Harris and Trump will undoubtedly be one of the most closely watched and consequential in recent history.

Orion Elfant Rea
1,000+ pageviews

Writer since Sep, 2023 · 9 published articles

Orion enjoys arguing his point and learning new perspectives. He spends most of his time watching movies or doing homework. His hobbies include mock trial, predicting the Oscars, and arbitrarily ranking things.

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